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Last 3 Posts @ May 17, 2008 12:58:05 PM EDT

NOT BRASSED OFF..... (17 hrs, 53 mins ago)

Apologies for not blogging earlier on but today recovering from Mayor-making last night in Mytholmroyd. Thanks to Hebden Bridge Junior Band for saving the day and pra...

Grimmer Up North

Transparency = popularity. Apparently (18 hrs, 17 mins ago)

The good ol’ High Court seems to have had the final word on whether the details of MPs’ expenses claims are published. Well, transparency is what it’...

And another thing...

Rangers riot aftermath (18 hrs, 19 mins ago)

<!--Mime Type of File is image/jpeg --> Manchester United fans are to pay the price for the Glasgow Rangers riot, which took place here in Piccadilly Gardens not tw...

Stephen Newton's diary of sorts...

Thursday, April 17, 2008

'Britons fear race violence': draw your own conclusions - 7 comments

It's hard to know quite what to draw from this BBC/Mori poll. For one thing, I can't find any detailed breakdown of the statistics. Perhaps they aren't broken down at all, which would be a tremendous weakness.

The most obvious flaw is the conflation of race, nationality, and immigration. A backlash against immigrants presumably involves opposing nationalities, though it need not - generational and cultural factors also play a part, not to mention economic differentials. Racial differences might play a part too, but a lot of water has flown under the bridge since the assumption held that racist violence was the preserve of predominantly white working-class communities against immigrants from the Caribbean or Indian subcontinent. Such racism still exists, but hardly has anything to do with current patterns of immigration.

Another problem is the assumption, presumably stemming from an odd faith in Enoch Powell's ability to foretell the future, of a contrast between the 'shaky peace' of today, and some kind of future bloodbath. Yet violence between gangs that define themselves on racial, ethnic, or nationalist grounds is hardly unknown, even if it's usually restricted to already violent areas. The absence of the large-scale riots of years past is hardly proof that tension and hostility has been reduced, just perhaps of social atomisation - the groups themselves are smaller.

Racism, nationalism, and hostility to outsiders, are common to all human societies, and the greatest limitation on the development and progress of humanity, but I doubt there's been any serious diminution of these impulses in centuries, with the exception of some large cosmopolitan cities (researchers in this field who are professional enough not to write pieces off the tops of their heads are welcome to comment on this point). Disappointingly, internationalism is a truly tiny movement in the world, and I suspect that socialism in practice has had a thoroughly negative effect, certainly when compared with free markets.

It's nearly two years since I posted this, but the section I quoted from bowblog still sounds to me like the best strategy for maintaining social harmony without surrendering to bigots (my emphasis):
Our effort, in the wealthy world, (where, let's face it, immigrants are going to continue to arrive in large numbers if we're to remain wealthy) must go into improving the capacity of our reception communities [...], boosting the resilience of the bottom social tier, taking working class grievances seriously and easing the pressures produced by ineluctable change. The goal must be to build social solidarity, to neutralise the embitterment and disconnection that feeds the fascists.

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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

House price reports - 3 comments

According to the BBC:
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (Rics) said that 78.5% more surveyors reported a fall than a rise in house prices in March.
Sounds dramatic: I wonder if anyone thought that meant that 89.25% reported a fall, and 10.75% a rise (89.25 - 10.75 = 78.5)? Or else that 78.5% reported a fall?

In fact, if we take the article at its word, and assume that no surveyors reported no change, it turns out only 64.1% saw a fall, 35.9% a rise (64.1 / 35.9 = 1.785). Let's assume that 20% actually saw no change at all, which doesn't seem too unreasonable: that would take the fallers down to 51.3%, and the risers to 28.7%. That wouldn't be dramatic, unless there really was a sound reason for an inexorable rise in the asset in question, and it says nothing about the size of any increase or decrease.

I'll assume that the BBC doesn't have an agenda to shock, and didn't spin the figures for maximum effect, but whoever pitched the story did. The question is, as Chris Dillow and others have asked, Why Worry? I'd like to see the focus of economic policy shift away from the preservation of the domestic housing market back to things that matter to the entire population, not just those lucky enough to have acquired a phoney wealth by buying or selling their house at the right time: investment in businesses; education, training, working practices, employment, and productivity; the free movement of capital and labour; and international trade.

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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Unemployment statistics - no comments

Via the Greater Manchester Fabian Society's blog, here's a breakdown of (claimant count) unemployment statistics by parliamentary constituency, with figures for July 1997, 2006, and 2007, as well as a split between men and women. Unfortunately, being a PDF, it's nigh-on impossible to extract and crunch any of the figures, but you might find it interesting to look at.

I note that the five highest unemployment rates in the UK are: 10.4%, 11.4%, 11.4%, 14.3%, and a ridiculously high 19.0% (24.5% among men) in Clare Short's Birmingham Ladywood. All are in England, with no fewer than three in Birmingham. Make of that what you will.

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Tuesday, July 24, 2007

500 up - 3 comments

During the past day our Labour blog count reached a remarkable 502 (more statistics on posting activity here), so now seems like a good time to list some of the new joiners. Since the last run-down was in January, the list is long, but a (belated) welcome to everyone mentioned - they appear in reverse order of discovery/submission, and descriptions appear where one was supplied, or else I found a bit of text that seemed like a good summary.

While 502 is a large enough figure (I wonder if anyone out there would care to estimate the equivalent figure for the Conservatives?) the challenge is to bring on board the hundreds who live only on MpURL, and the many others who blog quietly and unobtrusively, unaware that this blogging network exists. Anything you can do to help me with this would be much appreciated.

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Monday, June 25, 2007

Deputy Leadership voting - 2 comments

Hello again!

I'm sure you've all seen the breakdown of the deputy leadership voting figures, but for the record, LabourMark has round-by-round totals, and Luke Akehurst has a breakdown of the totals across the membership, MP, and trade union sections.

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Sunday, April 22, 2007

Mobile phone masts, and other incredible statistics - no comments

Says Rhod, via The Independent:
Two giant mobile phone companies are to move a mast at a primary school, after parents claimed their children fell sick [...]
I've long thought the "mobile phone mast health scandal" issue, that spreads from area to area rather like a circus - or a plague - was one of those classic situations where anxious parents' specious and unscientific claims were whipped up by ignorant journalists and ambitious local opposition politicians, with impressive-sounding statistics only being properly scrutinised after the political tornado had passed. Perhaps I've missed a subtlety somewhere along the line.
Their results showed 56 per cent of the children and 86 per cent of the staff had problems sleeping, 54 per cent and 59 per cent respectively were getting headaches and migraines, and 46 per cent and 95 per cent respectively reported fatigue and numbness.
The effects of the St Edward's RC primary school's phone mast - which is in Warwickshire - must be strong indeed, as I can attest to having experienced all of the mentioned symptoms during the 11 years covered, none of which could possibly be explained by other factors: everything from headaches, migraines, to insomnia, dizziness, and nausea. I've even heard "strange hums and clicks", but then I do like Autechre. It appears that staff are far more susceptible (95%, compared to 46%, are honest enough to declare this fact) to "fatigue and numbness". As the son of two teachers, I couldn't possibly comment on this scientific conundrum...

*

Meanwhile, the BBC reveal that England cricket captain legend, Michael Vaughan, has successfully called a coin-toss six times in succession. Broadsheet science editors were "stumped" by this seeming mathematical impossibility until a Tipton resident revealed to the world's press that he owned a "powerful magnet", squeezed his eyes closed, and walked in circles around his sitting-room, humming loudly, and with his fingers crossed, while each toss was made, in order to achieve the desired result for England.

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007

More miraculous powers of tea - 1 comment

Forget secularism, and forget hip priests, the BBC can exclusively reveal the true cause of the decline in Christian worship, and the loss of respect for its institutions:


No doubt the 'powers that be' will have 'corrected' this 'error' by the time you read the article over your breakfast.
Bill Gorman, chairman of the Tea Council, also said the study was "another very positive piece of research for tea as it's clear that the researchers recognise that tea has significant health effects".
This representative of a producer group obviously isn't afraid to put his organisation's credibility on the line:
The researchers tested the effects of tea in 16 humans and on rat tissue.

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