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Monday, May 07, 2007

Results 2007 - 5 comments

It would be a bit odd if I didn't have anything to say about the Council elections, so here we go. Even if Labour avoided "meltdown" (how's that for ambition?), losing close to 500 councillors in England, and power in both Scotland and Wales, is a pretty lousy result.

Let's face it, Labour doesn't have any divine right to form a government, and governments are put in place to do a job, grudgingly (so the turnout figures say), by the public. Neither the Labour Party nor the Labour government should expect thanks, or even appreciation from the public, however many good things have been done, and are yet to be done. Nonetheless they must carry on governing roughly in accordance with the will of, and in the interests of the public. Just as individuals remember their own achievements, conveniently forgetting or dismissing their far more numerous failures, the majority of the public, who see themselves in opposition to (perhaps, subject to) governments in general, will tend to forget or dismiss governments' achievements, harking back to well-publicised failures or embarrassments.

What doesn't help is that seemingly doomed administrations are not marked by failure of policy, but by a hostile, bored media, hungry for intrigue and scandal. It's this poisonous cloud that is so dangerous for governments, for parties, and so unappealing to the electorate. Can it be dispersed - perhaps with the help of this blogosphere of ours?

*

Back to the results, we had a particularly bad result here in Brighton & Hove, with Labour losing 10 of its 23 seats to the Greens, and to the Conservatives, who are now by far the largest party.

In the Brunswick and Adelaide ward (my side of the road) - once (intriguingly) the SNP's power base in England - Labour collapsed from second to fourth, their vote halving with the reduced turnout.

2003: LD 2325 (48.3%), Lab 1164 (24.2%), Green 680 (14.1%), Con 535 (11.1%), Others 110
2007: LD 1671 (41.1%), Green 913 (22.5%), Con 725 (17.8%), Lab 547 (13.5%), Others 208

The result was only marginally less bad in Central Hove (the other side of my road):

2003: Con 2154 (38.7%), LD 1731 (31.1%), Lab 1057 (19.0%), Green 618 (11.1%)
2007: Con 1865 (45.9%), LD 1359 (33.4%), Green 753 (18.5%), Lab 621 (15.3%), Others 109

Our only substantial share of the vote was the 41.2% achieved in East Brighton. Overall the score was: Con 36.6%, Lab 26.3%, Green 21.7%, LD 10.2%, Others 5.3%.

*

Chris Dillow has more on the disappointing turnout, while Skuds covers compulsory voting. I wouldn't mind seeing a pilot project at a future election, though I agree that punishing people who decide not to vote is not a solution to the lack of interest in local politics. Furthermore, the democratic process is supposed to put the population in control, and introducing compulsion reverses this.

That is, of course, also an argument in favour of first past the post, against voting systems that use party lists and where the formation of governments is a matter of negotiation among politicians, where policies and principles can be put aside in order to make a large enough coalition. It's perhaps with this in mind that the Scottish Liberal Democrats, winners of a mere 16 out of 129 seats, seem to believe they're free to pick and choose coalition partners to give themselves a say in the running of Scotland:
"The Scottish Liberal Democrats will work constructively to promote our positive policies in the new Parliament."

The last eight years of the Scottish Parliament have seen Scotland run by a Labour-led coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

Earlier, Tavish Scott, who ran the Lib Dems' election campaign, said his party would not share power with Labour.
Sadly, the SNP won that election - in terms of both votes and seats - so it falls to them to govern Scotland. The Liberal Democrats, who came fourth, should go off into a little corner and keep their noses out.

Update (09/05): See also this on PR, from Shuggy.

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5 comments so far...

At 9:19 PM, May 07, 2007, Blogger el Tom said...

Excellent analysis.

   
At 3:19 AM, May 08, 2007, Blogger Benjamin said...

I would rather that the share of the vote is represented in parliament, and that every vote counts. If a party gets, say, 15% of the vote, I think its perfectly reasonable and fair to expect it to take 15% of the seats. Every vote should count equally. This surely is a key principle of democracy itself.

The SNP did not get a majority of the vote, or seats, and therefore does not have the right to govern outright. I generally think majorities should be ELECTED rather than come about by dint of an unfair and unrepresentative electoral system, that effectively disenfranchaises so many folk.

It's perfectly fair and reasonable that the SNP should govern in a coalition, and the Lib Dems are one choice of partner.

A Labour Party man then complains that this involves, er, an abondonment of principle: surely this would generate hollow laughter if repeated eleswhere...

Its also predicated on the false assumption that people of principle of differing parties cannot work together. This is bunkum, and proven wrong by successful Scottish and Welsh devolution. The principle of PR is already conceded by the Labour Party, demonstrated by the fact that any new parliament gets it.

Its changing outmoded, undemocratic attitudes at Westminster that is more of a problem.

   
At 1:30 PM, May 08, 2007, Blogger Bloggers4Labour said...

Every vote should count equally. This surely is a key principle of democracy itself.

I'm just floating this casually, without any particularly firm view, but what you're doing is looking at voting from an aggregated point of view - which suits parties - rather than from the POV of an individual voter. At that level, all votes under FPP matter where it counts (i.e. before the piles are added up), and the principle of equal individual votes has been served.

The principle of PR is already conceded by the Labour Party, demonstrated by the fact that any new parliament gets it.

Not without controversy, as you can see, but I don't think I want to get drawn into that.

   
At 4:45 AM, May 09, 2007, Blogger Benjamin said...

A nice bit of mental gymnastics there. As you know full well, millions of votes are wasted under FPTP, because these votes don't translate into representation in parliament. For many, voting must seem a complete waste of time under FPTP. It limits choice, effectively disenfranchises millions, and is supported by conservative duopolists.

   
At 5:53 PM, May 17, 2007, Blogger Neil Harding said...

Bit belated but just like to wholly endorse Benjamin's comments here.

Benjamin is right - fighting for PR is about fighting for a basic fundamental of democracy - which means everyone's vote should be equal - under FPTP that is clearly not the case.

The people know something is rotten, that they are not being listened to, but they haven't yet in big enough numbers sussed out that PR will improve things. To get every adult the vote took a long time, hopefully it won't take that long to get 'equal votes'.

PR for Westminster will only happen if one of the big two parties back it while they are in power, only Labour has shown any inclination towards PR.

It is vital that intelligent Labour members like Andrew are won over. Labour have spent most of their history in opposition despite the majority of voters continually backing left-wing progressive policies.

Centre-left parties (like Labour) tend to quickly establish themselves as the largest parties under PR and in conjunction with the Greens and Socialists spend the majority of their time in power - this is in contrast to their fate under plurality systems like FPTP. The explanation for this is that the left-vote tends to be more split between parties and this is punished under FPTP but not under PR.

What is good for the people is good for the Labour party, we shouldn't fear democracy.

For more about PR click here.

   

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