French electoral geography - 2 comments
I wasn't expecting to post about this, but a comparison of the 2007 département map, and one from 1974, when Mitterand trailed in second to Giscard d'Estaing, is interesting:
2007:
1974:
OK, the gap in 1974 was 1.62 points, rather than 6.12 in 2007, so we'd expect more pink on the second map, but what's interesting is the geographical shift in support.
Take the North: apart from Pas de Calais, which Royal took by just over 4 points, the Socialists have disappeared. Isn't that supposed to be the industrial heartland? [this thought, via]
The Socialists have also disappeared from the South-east. Gard and Bouches-du-Rhône were won convincingly in 1974, but went to Sarkozy with majorities of 12 and 16 points respectively in 2007. The centre, too, isn't looking too strong (Centre and Bourgogne).
Pyrénées-Atlantiques (far South-west) shows a definite shift to the left, but generally Socialist support seems to have shifted decisively towards Brittany on the western tip.
I'm curious to know what this all means. Though I could probably whip up the relevant maps to prove my point, I suspect that a UK electoral map from the 2005 General Election would probably not differ much from an October 1974 one, if held at arm's length - at least from a red/blue point of view.
Update (08/05): See also: "French electorate splits into two tribes of young and old", via.
Labels: France, Giscard d'Estaing, Mitterand, psephology
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2 comments so far...
A lot of it is due to the collapse of the PCF (which o/c endorsed both Mitterand and Royal) and which was strongest in those areas in which Royal did badly when compared to Mitterand (the north, the southeast, the centre). Some of it's voters shifted to the PS, but far more headed towards Jean-Marie Le Pen and the FN. Especially the in southeast. Things have gone very badly for the Left done that way.
In the industrial north, Royal didn't really do all that badly (not when you consider that she over-performed in the rural west; for obvious reasons. She didn't exactly do well either; obviously). She only lost Nord narrowly and due to weakness in the Lille suburbs and the north of the department, and nearly won in Picardy proper (Somme and Aisne). (of course, I mean that she didn't do badly in this area for a French Socialist. In any other European country, this part of France would be owned by the Left (as the coalfields are in Britain or the Ruhr is in Germany) and her results around Valenciennes, Douai and so on were dire by international standards. But that's more a criticism of the PS than Royal herself).
She did do badly in Seine-Maritime, but as it's Laurent Fabius's fiefdom, I doubt that the local machines were that enthusiastic about her candidacy. And Oise is now Paris exurbia and a heavy defeat there was always going to happen (o/c it's not actually rich Paris exurbia; quite working class IIRC).
An interesting aspect of the 2007 map is that it only slightly mirrors the old Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide; strongly Catholic Brittany voted for Royal, while Sarkozy won a long list old Anti-Clerical bastions.
Thanks for that - great stuff!
Come to think of it, I do remember (some time ago) the business of PCF support drifting over to the the FN, but it seems odd that it would so clearly line up behind a mainstream conservative.
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